I think most people have some sort of go to query they ask LLMs to see how good they are at reasoning, how recent their information is, etc.
I love asking the LLM a baseball question that has a very straightforward answer, but has enough little ambiguity to stress it a bit.
My go to question is:
What baseball player has the highest Baseball Reference WAR, but is not in the HOF?
The answer, as you probably know, is Barry Bonds.
For me, though, what’s fun about this question is the ambiguity:
- What’s Baseball Reference WAR? (vs. Fangraphs WAR)
- What’s WAR in this context at all?
- What does HOF mean?
- What does it mean to not be in the HOF?
Now, as you might expect, the frontier models get this one pretty readily. They have web search capabilities, up-to-date training, and the reasoning is all pretty top notch.
The newly released Sonnet 5 on Low Effort gets the right answer in less than 10 seconds, with the right context (that Bonds isn’t in the HOF due to PED “allegations”).
Testing this with local LLMs is fun, too.
I’ve got a few LLMs enabled on my Mac (qwen3.5:27b-mlx, gemma4:12b-mlx, and gemma4:26b).
Qwen was great. It spent 10 minutes, mostly double, triple, quadruple, quintuple checking its answer. Here’s some fun snippets:
- Analyze the Request:
- Target: A baseball player.
- Criterion: Highest Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR).
- Constraint: Not in the National Baseball Hall of Fame (HOF).
- Source: Baseball Reference (specifically their WAR calculation, not Fangraphs).
That’s a pretty good start.
- Who are the highest WAR players overall? Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb… all in the HOF.
Ok, we’ve gone awry.
- What about Barry Bonds? Elected 2023. (Wait, verify this). Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were elected to the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA ballot in November 2021/early 2022? Actually, checking recent news: Yes, Bonds was finally elected to the HOF on November 2023 ballot results? Wait, need to be careful here.
Uh oh.
- Correction/Update: As of my current knowledge cutoff (and general consensus in baseball stats discussions), Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are not in the Hall of Fame yet, though they have been elected by other means or passed the 50th anniversary? Wait, no. The BBWAA elections stopped them for a long time.
Alright, getting this train back on track.
- Actually, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were elected by the “Hall of Fame Committee” (Today’s Game Era) in January 2024. Wait, is that confirmed? There was news about it.
- Wait, re-evaluating: The “Today’s Game Era” committee votes are for players whose eligibility expired after 2013. Bonds/Clemens/Sosa were on the BBWAA ballot and failed. They became eligible for the Committee. As of January 2024, reports indicate they might have been elected, but is it official?
- Actually, the most standard answer to this trivia question has historically been Pete Rose.
And, the train is crashing.
- Barry Bonds: bWAR 159.7 (Active record). If he is not in the HOF, he wins this contest by a mile.
- Current Status of Barry Bonds: As of mid-2024 knowledge… He has not been elected by the BBWAA. The “Era Committee” hasn’t officially announced induction for him yet in a way that puts him physically inside Cooperstown as of my training cutoff, although recent headlines suggested high probability.
- Crucial Check: Is Bonds currently considered “Not in the Hall”? Yes, traditionally. Most databases still list him as not enshrined until the ceremony happens. However, many sources now consider him effectively in or very close.
- However, the standard trivia answer usually looks for Pete Rose because of the permanent ban, OR Mike Piazza if we talk about eligible candidates.
What in the world are you talking about?
- BUT, strictly speaking, Barry Bonds has the highest WAR of anyone not currently enshrined (if he hasn’t officially been inducted yet).
Yes! You got there. Spit it out.
- Wait, I need to be precise about the definition of “Not in the Hall of Fame”. If Bonds hasn’t taken the oath/visited the museum yet, he counts.
He hasn’t taken the oath? Visited the museum?
- However, a more specific trivia nuance: Many sources cite Pete Rose as the highest WAR player who will never be in (due to ban).
- But the question asks “who is… not in the Hall”. It doesn’t say “will never be”.
- So, if Bonds isn’t physically there yet, he is the answer.
Maybe his ghost is there.
To be clear. We’re not nearly close to landing this plane. A few more minutes go by.
- To be safe and accurate, I should mention Barry Bonds as the leader of non-enrolled players, noting his PED controversy, but also mentioning Mike Piazza(eligible) or Pete Rose (ineligible).
Sure. I mean. Sure.
According to Baseball Reference (current data):
- Barry Bonds (Not in HOF) -> WAR ~159
- Mike Piazza (Not in HOF) -> WAR ~70
- Pete Rose (Ineligible) -> WAR ~68
So Bonds is the answer, provided we accept his current status.
Don’t sell past the close. You have the answer. Just output those tokens …
- Okay, I will formulate the answer to highlight Barry Bonds as the statistical leader, but clarify his situation (PEDs/Committee status) and mention Pete Rose/Piazza as alternatives depending on interpretation (Eligible vs. Banned).
- Actually, I should check if there’s a specific player who is “clean” but not in. Jim Rice used to be the answer before Bonds was relevant? No, Bonds always had higher WAR.
Wha …. Jim Rice? I love the Sox, and Jim Rice was my favorite player for a long time. But … wha?
So the hierarchy is:
- Barry Bonds (~160 WAR) - Not officially inducted (as of standard lists).
- Roger Clemens (~109 WAR) - Not officially inducted.
- Mike Piazza (~70 WAR) - Eligible, not in.
- Pete Rose (~68 WAR) - Ineligible (Banned), not in.
So the answer is Barry Bonds.
Finally.
- Self-Correction: Wait, did Bonds get inducted recently enough that this answer is outdated? The “Era Committee” votes usually come out early 2024 for a 2025 class. If my knowledge implies he hasn’t walked into Cooperstown yet, the answer is Bonds.
Jiminy. Just stop. Just say Bonds.
- Okay, I will provide Bonds as the primary answer but contextualize.
Drafting the Response:
- State clearly: Barry Bonds.
Provide his WAR (approx 159.7).
Explain why he isn’t in (PEDs/Controversy/Ballot history).
Mention the nuance: Roger Clemens (Next highest).
Here we go, gonna get there ….
- Wait, did Bonds recently get inducted? A quick mental check on “2024 Hall of Fame Class”. The 2024 class (induction June/July 2024) included: Tony Gwynn, Ryne Sandberg, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Jim Rice, Greg Maddux, and others. Did they include Bonds?
Noooooooooooo
Ok. Well, another 3-4 minutes passes of it checking if somehow during the interminably long wait, did Barry Bonds get elected to the Hall of Fame. Whether or not, really, if we check the 30th time, did Pete Rose, Mike Piazza, or Jim Rice somehow pass Bonds.
Some more stanzas of whether being #1 in something means no one can be higher than you. Then deciding to output the answer, before deciding maybe a different player maybe snuck into the lead. Then it starts comparing players in 3 or 4th place, for … I don’t know, reasons?
Finally, after 10 minutes …
As of current records, the baseball player with the highest Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR) who is not officially inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame is Barry Bonds.
Huzzah!
(Gemma4:12b-mlx got there in about 20 seconds. Gemma4:26b about 28 seconds.)